Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Rule Change Aftermath - Comments on Redistribution Draft

A lot of the comments regarding the idea of breaking up the Redistribution Draft into weekly submit/post parts delved into changing the structure - to not give 3 picks at a time...

Those comments are taken seriously - and may result in changes in the future - but that's not up for a change this time.  This is a holdover from Robot Baseball that I like - it's a method for instant improvement if done correctly (and if guesses are correct).

It's communism.  It's socialism.  It's welfare.  Whatever - and I am aware of the fears of "tanking" to get the first draft spot.  There are some other pieces of the game that hopefully are in place (or can be strengthened) to provide incentives for keeping teams improving through the season (post-season tournaments, cash for each win - just increased, etc.).

But the idea here is to try to provide quick turnarounds with some effort so that there's hope from one season to the next (or maybe within 2-3 years).

What's the history in BWB?  Here's a check about how 90-loss teams do in the next season, two seasons later, and three seasons later.  Then how about 90-win teams?


Category # of Teams Avg wins first year Avg wins next period Avg change in wins # of Improved Teams % Improved Teams # of Division titles % of Division titles
90 Losses - 1 year later - Total 368 53.54 69.42 15.88 309 84.0% 50 13.6%
90 Losses - 1 year later - Same owner 248 54.40 68.33 13.93 205 82.7% 27 10.9%
90 Losses - 1 year later - Different owner 120 51.80 71.67 19.87 104 86.7% 23 19.2%









90 Losses - 2 years later - Total 298 53.43 71.95 18.52 269 90.3% 55 18.5%
90 Losses - 2 years later - Same owner 164 54.65 70.29 15.64 147 89.6% 27 16.5%
90 Losses - 2 years later - Different owner 134 51.93 73.98 22.05 122 91.0% 28 20.9%









90 Losses - 3 years later - Total 233 53.22 73.24 20.02 212 91.0% 46 19.7%
90 Losses - 3 years later - Same owner 108 54.23 71.63 17.40 94 87.0% 23 21.3%
90 Losses - 3 years later - Different owner 125 52.34 74.64 22.30 118 94.4% 23 18.4%

As comparison, what about teams on the opposite end of the scale - those with 90+ wins:

Category # of Teams Avg wins first year Avg wins next period Avg change in wins # of Same or Improved Teams % Same or Improved Teams # of Division titles % of Division titles
90 Wins - 1 year later - Total 350 94.99 84.48 -10.51 63 18.0% 175 50.0%
90 Wins - 1 year later - Same owner 332 95.10 84.80 -10.30 61 18.4% 168 50.6%
90 Wins - 1 year later - Different owner 18 92.94 78.50 -14.44 2 11.1% 7 38.9%









90 Wins - 2 years later - Total 284 94.85 81.08 -13.77 43 15.1% 106 37.3%
90 Wins - 2 years later - Same owner 249 95.00 81.83 -13.17 36 14.5% 95 38.2%
90 Wins - 2 years later - Different owner 35 93.74 75.74 -18.00 7 20.0% 11 31.4%









90 Wins - 3 years later - Total 216 94.75 79.26 -15.49 38 17.6% 84 38.9%
90 Wins - 3 years later - Same owner 166 95.11 80.38 -14.73 30 18.1% 68 41.0%
90 Wins - 3 years later - Different owner 50 93.52 75.54 -17.98 8 16.0% 16 32.0%


So...whether or not it's the Redistribution Draft doing it or some of the other mechanisms designed to allow losing teams to improve, it looks like one of the goals of allowing that instant improvement is being met...84% of 90-loss teams have a better record the next season and it's up to 90% of teams with better records than that low point in years 2 & 3.  But even then, the average record 2 years later is still below .500.  It's also encouraging that teams are able to go worst-to-first, but it's not so overwhelming (still fewer than 1 in 5 teams) to make me think the scales are tipped too far in their direction.

Meanwhile, the teams that win 90 games still continue to do well in following seasons.  90 wins is pretty high - and when the average of those teams hovers around 95 wins, then the measure of "same or improved record" may not be a great measure for these team.  They are dropping 10-to-15 wins over years 1-3 after 90 wins, but half the teams still win their division the following season and around 40% are still winning in years 2 & 3.  If anything, that leads me to want to make it even harder for those top teams...but not at this time.

Comments welcome - fire away - and in the future I'll do a similar history check with the absolute worst records and with league champs and see how the extreme parts of the draft fare in future seasons.  There was also worry that breaking up the Redistribution Draft into multiple weeks will completely tip the scales in favor of the bad teams.  Yes...the team with the worst record will essentially be guaranteed all their top picks each week.  However, the multi-week format should benefit teams 2-16 in the draft order as well.  The league champ should be able to get more than the 3-5 players they typically were awarded in the past...

But at this point, no change.