Those comments are taken seriously - and may result in changes in the future - but that's not up for a change this time. This is a holdover from Robot Baseball that I like - it's a method for instant improvement if done correctly (and if guesses are correct).
It's communism. It's socialism. It's welfare. Whatever - and I am aware of the fears of "tanking" to get the first draft spot. There are some other pieces of the game that hopefully are in place (or can be strengthened) to provide incentives for keeping teams improving through the season (post-season tournaments, cash for each win - just increased, etc.).
But the idea here is to try to provide quick turnarounds with some effort so that there's hope from one season to the next (or maybe within 2-3 years).
What's the history in BWB? Here's a check about how 90-loss teams do in the next season, two seasons later, and three seasons later. Then how about 90-win teams?
|Category||# of Teams||Avg wins first year||Avg wins next period||Avg change in wins||# of Improved Teams||% Improved Teams||# of Division titles||% of Division titles|
|90 Losses - 1 year later - Total||368||53.54||69.42||15.88||309||84.0%||50||13.6%|
|90 Losses - 1 year later - Same owner||248||54.40||68.33||13.93||205||82.7%||27||10.9%|
|90 Losses - 1 year later - Different owner||120||51.80||71.67||19.87||104||86.7%||23||19.2%|
|90 Losses - 2 years later - Total||298||53.43||71.95||18.52||269||90.3%||55||18.5%|
|90 Losses - 2 years later - Same owner||164||54.65||70.29||15.64||147||89.6%||27||16.5%|
|90 Losses - 2 years later - Different owner||134||51.93||73.98||22.05||122||91.0%||28||20.9%|
|90 Losses - 3 years later - Total||233||53.22||73.24||20.02||212||91.0%||46||19.7%|
|90 Losses - 3 years later - Same owner||108||54.23||71.63||17.40||94||87.0%||23||21.3%|
|90 Losses - 3 years later - Different owner||125||52.34||74.64||22.30||118||94.4%||23||18.4%|
As comparison, what about teams on the opposite end of the scale - those with 90+ wins:
|Category||# of Teams||Avg wins first year||Avg wins next period||Avg change in wins||# of Same or Improved Teams||% Same or Improved Teams||# of Division titles||% of Division titles|
|90 Wins - 1 year later - Total||350||94.99||84.48||-10.51||63||18.0%||175||50.0%|
|90 Wins - 1 year later - Same owner||332||95.10||84.80||-10.30||61||18.4%||168||50.6%|
|90 Wins - 1 year later - Different owner||18||92.94||78.50||-14.44||2||11.1%||7||38.9%|
|90 Wins - 2 years later - Total||284||94.85||81.08||-13.77||43||15.1%||106||37.3%|
|90 Wins - 2 years later - Same owner||249||95.00||81.83||-13.17||36||14.5%||95||38.2%|
|90 Wins - 2 years later - Different owner||35||93.74||75.74||-18.00||7||20.0%||11||31.4%|
|90 Wins - 3 years later - Total||216||94.75||79.26||-15.49||38||17.6%||84||38.9%|
|90 Wins - 3 years later - Same owner||166||95.11||80.38||-14.73||30||18.1%||68||41.0%|
|90 Wins - 3 years later - Different owner||50||93.52||75.54||-17.98||8||16.0%||16||32.0%|
So...whether or not it's the Redistribution Draft doing it or some of the other mechanisms designed to allow losing teams to improve, it looks like one of the goals of allowing that instant improvement is being met...84% of 90-loss teams have a better record the next season and it's up to 90% of teams with better records than that low point in years 2 & 3. But even then, the average record 2 years later is still below .500. It's also encouraging that teams are able to go worst-to-first, but it's not so overwhelming (still fewer than 1 in 5 teams) to make me think the scales are tipped too far in their direction.
Meanwhile, the teams that win 90 games still continue to do well in following seasons. 90 wins is pretty high - and when the average of those teams hovers around 95 wins, then the measure of "same or improved record" may not be a great measure for these team. They are dropping 10-to-15 wins over years 1-3 after 90 wins, but half the teams still win their division the following season and around 40% are still winning in years 2 & 3. If anything, that leads me to want to make it even harder for those top teams...but not at this time.
Comments welcome - fire away - and in the future I'll do a similar history check with the absolute worst records and with league champs and see how the extreme parts of the draft fare in future seasons. There was also worry that breaking up the Redistribution Draft into multiple weeks will completely tip the scales in favor of the bad teams. Yes...the team with the worst record will essentially be guaranteed all their top picks each week. However, the multi-week format should benefit teams 2-16 in the draft order as well. The league champ should be able to get more than the 3-5 players they typically were awarded in the past...
But at this point, no change.