Sunday, January 4, 2009

Redistribution Draft - Early Mistakes

I've processed 3 drafts so far, and I've had teams in two of them. And I'm already kicking myself.

You can have 2 different strategies in the draft:
1) Get guys who can immediately fill holes in your lineup
2) Get new guys to the player list who are long-term prospects before anyone else grabs them.

Well - and 3) you can try a combo platter of both.
If you're REALLY lucky, if you go for approach #2, they actually fulfill your needs if you went for approach #1 - and for much cheaper (100 is cheaper than 4300).

My problem is that I was going combo platter, but thought that the new guys on the player list would be most in demand. So I've loaded up the top of my list with the hot new foreign guys and some guys that Baseball America lists as the team's #1 prospect, and a few leftover 1st rounders from 2008. So far, it looks like I should have gone for established guys earlier.

Example - In the Beer League I really needed a shortstop and thought J.J. Hardy would fill that hole pretty well and wasn't too thrilled with the other names. But I put him in the 2nd round - and by the time that happened, he was gone (and I still would have been able to get 2 or 3 of the guys I did list in round 1).

The problem with the new players is that
- For every Dice K, there's a Kei Igawa.
- For every Geovany Soto, there's a J.R. Towles
(now, those 2 could actually end up doing something, but they didn't end up being the quick cheap fixes that people drafting them thought they might be).

Maybe my other leauges will turn out better, but so far in my sneak peaks at all the leagues I think I'm in the same situation in most cases.

UPDATE - POST DRAFT - OK, they weren't all so bad. I was smart enough in a couple leagues to put my priority in the first round (a nice snag of Mariano Rivera, for example, in Reality Bites). But mostly I've got teams that need significant bumps to get into playoff contention and a lot of cash (but no one to spend it on). I'm generally not a trader - so don't be offended if I keep turning down your offers, but if you're looking for cash in some leagues, see if you have something that can help me.

Redistribution Draft - Slow progress

The Redistribution Draft is underway for all returning leagues - and I'm quickly realizing I need to automate the process. So, the good news is I'm starting to sketch out a program that will conduct all the phases of the draft for me...the bad news is that it won't be done this season (or I have fingers crossed for maybe the last couple of leagues).

For anyone who's a programmer, my sticking point right now is when/how to add certain things that I'm doing intuitively (like moving up players from later rounds when you run out of picks in the current round, making sure you don't spend more cash than you have, etc.).

So... for 2009, I guess expect to see 1-2 leagues per day. In 2010, if all goes well, we should be able to see the results for all leagues within a day or two of you submitting your lists. I hope to be done by the next weekend. The first deadline for winter free agent signings/trades will be Friday, Jan 16 (unless there's some delay on the draft results).

UPDATE - I did take a break in the hand calculation of the draft to finish up an automated program to do this. Not much effect this year (except finishing the final 4-5 leagues quickly), but starting next year I should be able to post all league results within a few days of the list submissions.